• Dominic Berry posted a reply to glasiad on ?Public Health & the Corona virus 2 months, 1 week ago

    ?Public Health & the Corona virus

    Yes totally Glasiad, good post.

    I was coming to a similar thought this morning. Someone mentioned‘Isn’t it funny that Prince Charles AND Boris Johnson have both tested positive?” And I did the math.

    Now maybe these high flyers are more exposed.
    Or maybe they get regular tests.
    At time of writing, 20K tested positive out of 80M.
    So any given individual has a 1/4000 chance of testing +ve, so far.
    So the chance of any two randomly selected individuals,
    (say you and me both getting it,)
    that would be 1/8000.

    So the odds of two such prominent individuals as the Prince and the PM does actually raise an eyebrow.
    But this assumes we’re being tested.
    If we back up the evidence against the assumption, it makes perfect sense that a hell of a lot more people have it, but haven’t been tested.-

    My own figure is only 40K, (2 x 20K).
    But yeah, the numbers I’m watching are
    A) How many people get infected from one carrier?
    B) How many of them die?
    C) How much can prevention and cure reduce A and B?

    If A is really high, B is low enough, and it means there’s fuck all we can do except send some flowers when the dust settles.